A WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE FROM CONGRESSMAN GREGORY W. MEEKS
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY
Employment
• The four-week moving average of initial unemployment insurance claims (which smoothes weekly volatility) was 458,000 for the week ended September 25, down 29,000 from four weeks earlier, the third consecutive decline. (BLS)
Production
• Real GDP grew 1.7% at an annual rate in 2010:Q2, the fourth quarter of positive growth following four quarters of decline. GDP grew 3.0% from 2009:Q2. (BEA)
Business Investment
• Real disposable personal income rose 0.2% in August, and real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.2%. The level of consumer spending during the first two months of Q3 was 2.0% at an annual rate above the Q2 average. The price index for PCE rose 0.2%. The August personal saving rate edged up to 5.8%, after falling slightly in July. (BEA)
• Chief executives continue to predict economic expansion over the next six months, according to the Business Roundtable. The CEO economic outlook index, which is constructed from projected sales, capital spending and employment, was 86.0 in 2010:Q3. (Any reading above 50 indicates an expansionary outlook.) The index values have indicated an expansionary outlook in each of the last four quarters. In addition, the index is higher than at any point in 2007-2009. (Business Roundtable)
Housing
• Housing starts rose 10.5% in August to 598,000 units at an annual rate from a downwardly revised July level. August starts were well above market expectations and were the highest since April. Single-family starts increased 4.4% in August, while volatile multifamily starts rose 32.2%. (Census).
• Building permits edged up 1.8% to an annual rate of 569,000 units in August. Single-family permits dropped 1.2% and multifamily permits increased 9.8%. (Census).
• The Mortgage Banker Association mortgage applications purchase index increased 2.4% for the week ending September 24. The index is a measure of the volume of mortgage applications for home purchases. (Mortgage Bankers Association).