A WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE FROM CONGRESSMAN GREGORY W. MEEKS

January 18, 2011

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

Employment

• Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 103,000 in December, and private employment grew by 113,000. Private employment grew in every month of 2010. The unemployment rate fell sharply to 9.4% in December, down from 9.8% in November. The drop reflects a large increase of 297,000 employed persons in the household survey (which is separate from the payroll survey and volatile on a monthly basis). (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

• The four-week moving average of initial UI claims (which smoothes weekly volatility) was 416,500, down 7,000 from four weeks earlier. This measure, though still roughly one-third above its pre-recession level, has been generally trending downward since late August. (Employment and Training Administration)

Consumer Spending

• Nominal retail sales increased 0.6% in December and has increased 7.9% from its year-ago level. (Census Bureau)

• Sales at motor vehicle dealers rose 1.1% in December and 0.1% in November. (Census Bureau)

Production

• Total industrial production (IP) increased 0.8% in December, the largest gain since July and above market expectations. Over the past 12 months, IP has risen 5.9%. Roughly half of the overall monthly increase was due to a large 4.3% weather-related increase in utility output. Manufacturing output, which accounts for most of the index, rose 0.4% in December. Manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles and parts rose 0.5%. Mining output rose 0.4%. (Federal Reserve)

• Capacity utilization increased 0.6 percentage point in December to 76.0%. Capacity utilization is now at its highest level since August 2008. In the last year, capacity utilization has risen 4.4 percentage points. Manufacturing capacity utilization rose 0.3 percentage point to 73.2 percent in December and is up 4.1 percentage points from a year ago. (Federal Reserve)

Trade

• The November trade deficit narrowed $0.1 billion to $38.3 billion, the smallest monthly deficit since January 2010. As of November 2010, the deficit is $459 billion, $121 billion larger than this period from 2009, but roughly 70% of its size over this period in 2008. (Bureau of Economic Analysis)

• Nominal exports increased in November ($1.2 billion or 0.8%). This was led by a $1.0 billion increase in exports of consumer goods. Year-to-date exports of goods and services are up 17% when compared with the same period in 2009. (Bureau of Economic Analysis)}